Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Statistically speaking | by Pat

As usual, let's talk offense. The Notre Dame offense has improved its offensive output by 131.9 yards. That is the best improvement from the previous year in the nation. Interestingly, USC is 2nd in the nation in offense improvement at +128.5 yards while Penn State rounds out the top 3 at +126.7 yards. Consult the und.com game notes for the Top 10.

Continuing with a theme, the Irish have scored 348 points so far this season. The school single-season record is 426, set in 1991 over the course of 12 regular season games. It will take an average of 39 points over the final two games to break the record in only 11 regular season games. As it stands to reason then, the 2005 squad is currently on pace to break the school record for scoring average with a 38.67 points. The current record was set by the 1968 team that averaged 37.68 points.

No player has come on stronger lately than Maurice Stovall. After only notching 1 touchdown in the first six games of the season, Stovall has caught 8 TD passes in the last three. Interestingly, there hasn't been much middle ground for Stovall in terms of receiving yards per game. For five of the nine games he has 41 or fewer receiving yards while in the other four games he has 130 yards or more.

His recent quantum leap in production has also moved him considerably up the rankings in the ND record books. He is now 7th all time in career receptions and only 9 catches away from 6th place Tony Hunter (and only 8 catches ahead of inactive Rhema McKnight). In career receiving yards, Stovall is currently 6th all time at 1842 yards, 55 yards away from 5th place Tony Hunter. He is also tied for 3rd for career touchdown receptions with Jim Seymour. Both have 16 touchdowns, meaning Stovall equaled his previous career output in the last three games.

Another offensive player who has quietly been having an excellent year is Darius Walker. Overshadowed by the aerial attack and perhaps suffering a bit from a leg injury, Walker is still holding on to 3rd place for career average rushing yards per game. Over Walker's career, he is averaging 79.2 yards a game, which is behind Autry Denson (89.9) and Allen Pinkett (89.8) but ahead of Vagas Ferguson (73.9) and George Gipp (73.1). For the 2005 season, Walker is averaging 88.6 rushing yards/game.

And adding to his rushing contributions has been his work as a receiver. His 28 receptions not only are more than Fasano, Stovall, and Shelton had last year, but rank him 4th all-time for single season receptions by a running back. His 245 receiving yards combine with his 797 rushing yards to give him over 1000 all-purpose yards with two games remaining.

One thing about Zbikowski's recent scoring outburst that has largely gone unmentioned, at least on BGS. With his two touchdown game against Tennessee, Zbikowski stands with 5 career returns for a TD (1 fumble, 2 INTs, 2 punts). As the game notes highlight, that puts him up with some of the most famous big play players in ND history. Zibby's 5 returns place him equal with Vontez Duff (5 returns - 3 kickoffs, 1 punt, 1 INT) and just behind Tim Brown (6 returns - 3 punt, 3 kickoff), Rocket Ismail (6 returns - 1 punt, 5 kickoff), and Allen Rossum (NCAA record 9 returns - 3 punts, 3 kickoffs, 3 interceptions). With two years of eligibility left, it's highly possible that Zbikowski could move even higher on this list.

Let's switch over to defense now. A little over a month ago I took a look at when the Irish are letting teams score their points. Here's the table again, updated with current numbers. ND is still allowing the most number of points when the Irish are up by 28 or more points. And the fact that ND has allowed 41 points to be scored while the game was tied but only 14 points while the Irish trail shows that ND has done a phenomenal job so far this season responding to opponent scores with scores of their own.

Point Differential Points Allowed
28+ (+) 43
21-27 (+) 21
14-20 (+) 27
7-13 (+) 41
1-6 (+) 32
TIED
41
1-6 (-) 0
7-13 (-) 7
14-20 (-) 7
21+ (-) 0
TOTAL
219


Season Long Running Averages

Per game breakdowns of the first six games here.

Category BYU UT
Navy
1st Six
2005
2004
Yards per rush
1.9
1.4
5.7
3.6
3.5
3.32
Avg yards per PA
11.4 8.9
9.2
8.4 8.9 7.2
Avg yards per PC
14.6 14.8
12.9
13.3 13.6 13.4
Pass completion %
78%
61%
71%
63%
65%
54%
3rd downs conv.
6/11 (55%)
7/16 (44%)
8/12 (75%)
46/96 (48%)
67/135 (50%)
68/183 (37%)
Rushing yd avg 44.0
48.0
221.0
170.8
148.67 (58th)
127.4 (85th)
Passing yd avg 467.0
295.0
284.0
318.8
328.78 (5th)
218.1 (54th)
Passing Eff. (Quinn)
222.0
164.46
184.05
150.9
164.3 (5th)
125.87 (55th)
Total offense yd avg
511.0
343.0
505.0
489.7
477.44 (10th)
345.5 (81st)
Scoring Offense
49.0
41.0
42.0
36.0
38.67 (7th)
24.1 (72nd)
Time of Possession
26:21 32:12
28:25
35:12 33:08 30:50
Red Zone TDs 3/4 (75%)
1/3 (33%)
5/5 (100%)
21/27 (81%)
30/ 39 (77%)
25 / 36 (69%)

Defense

Category BYU
UT
Navy
1st Six
2005
2004
Yards per rush given up
2.2
2.8
4.1
4.4
3.9
2.7
Avg yards per PA
7.0 5.8
7.5
7.7
7.4 7.9
Avg yards per PC
12.2 14.4
18.8
14.8
14.4 13.6
Pass completion percentage
58%
41%
40%
52%
52%
58%
Quarterback sacks
4
3
0
13
20
30
Rushing yd avg. against 75.0
109.0
239.0
126.3
131.22 (40th)
88.2 (4th)
Passing yd avg. against 317.0
187.0
75.0
304.8
267.56 (100th)
281.2 (116th)
Passing Eff. def. avg.
122.73
90.39
116.00
122.24
118.74 (46th)
138.34 (98th)
Total yd offense avg. against 392.0
296.0
314.0
431.2
398.78 (77th)
369.4 (54th)
Scoring Defense
23.0
21.0
21.0
25.67
24.33 (47th)
24.08 (46th)
Red Zone Defense
3/4 (75%)
4/4 (100%)
3/3 (100%)
16/23 (70%)
26/34 (76.5%)
33/38 (87%)
Red Zone TD Def.
3/4 (75%)
2/4 (50%)
3/3 (100%)
13/23 (57%)
21/34 (62%)
19/38 (50%)

Turnovers

Category BYU
UT
Navy
1st Six
2005
2004
Interceptions by ND
2
2
1
7
12
9
Fumbles Forced / Recovered
0/0
2/1
2/1
12/7
16/ 9
27 / 12
Turnovers gained
2 3
2
14
21 21
Had Intercepted 0
0
1
5
6
10
Fumbles / Lost 3/2
2/1
0/0
9/3
14/ 6
15 / 6
Turnovers lost
2
1
1
8
12
16
Turnover Margin +0
+2
+1
+6
+9
+5

Special Teams

Category BYU
UT
Navy
1st Six
2005
2004
Kickoff return average
17.2
23.3
13.5
19.8
18.7
18.7
Kickoff return average allowed
21.7 21.4
26.5
19.1
20.7 19.9
Punt return average
7.5 39.3
12.5
16.5
18.9 10.8
Punt return average allowed
11.8
4.7
-
5.2
6.3
8.2