Monday, December 26, 2005

Fiesta Forecasting | by Jay

Here's a cursory Fiesta Bowl pick based on average points scored and given up by both teams.

First off, the raw data:

Ohio State's Schedule
Scored
vs OSU
Usually
Scored
Diff.
Gave up
vs OSU
Usually
gave up
Diff.
Miami (Ohio) 14 33.73 -19.73 34 23.45 +10.55
Texas 25 50.92 -25.92 22 14.58 +7.42
San Diego State 6 26.92 -20.92 27 27.08 -0.08
Iowa 6 30.55 -24.55 31 19.00 +12.00
Penn State 17 35.18 -18.18 10 16.45 -6.45
Michigan State 24 33.82 -9.82 35 28.73 +6.27
Indiana 10 22.52 -12.52 41 32.82 +8.18
Minnesota 31 36.18 -5.18 45 28.55 +16.45
Illinois 2 17.00 -15.00 40 39.55 +0.45
Northwestern 7 31.82 -24.82 48 32.45 +15.55
Michigan 21 28.82 -7.82 25 19.27 +5.73
OSU averages
14.82

-16.77
32.55

+6.92

Notre Dame's Schedule
Scored
vs ND
Usually
Scored
Diff.
Gave up
vs ND
Usually
gave up
Diff.
Pittsburgh 21 24.27 -3.27 42 22.09 +19.91
Michigan 10 28.82 -18.82 17 19.27 -2.27
Michigan State 38 33.82 +4.18 38 28.73 +9.27
Washington 17 21.55 -4.55 36 30.64 +5.36
Purdue 28 30.00 -2.00 49 28.09 +20.91
Southern Cal 34 50.00 -16.00 31 21.33 +9.67
BYU 23 33.45 -10.45 49 28.73 +20.27
Tennessee 21 18.64 +2.36 41 18.64 +22.36
Navy 21 32.64 -11.64 42 25.73 +16.27
Syracuse 10 13.82 -3.82 34 26.82 +7.18
Stanford 31 24.45 +6.55 38 30.64 +7.36
ND averages
23.09

-5.22
37.91

+12.39

The "averages" lines shows each team's strength adjusted by its schedule, i.e., Ohio State is -16.77 points better on defense than what its opponents usually score, and +6.92 points better on offense than what its opponents usually give up. ND is -5.22 points better on defense, and +12.39 points better on offense.

Let's apply those adjustments to the point per game (ppg) totals that the Irish and the Buckeyes usually put up. Offensively...

OSU offense ppg
ND def adj

OSU Offense
32.55
-5.22
=
27.33
ND offense ppg
OSU def adj

ND Offense
37.91
-16.77
=
21.14

And for the defenses...

ND defense ppg
OSU off adj

ND Defense
23.09
+6.92
=
30.01
OSU defense ppg
ND off adj

OSU Defense
14.82
+12.39
=
27.21

Finally, let's average ND's offensive adjusted score with OSU's defensive adjusted score (and vice versa) to get a score prediction for the game:

OSU Offense

ND Defense


OSU Score
( 27.33
+
30.01 )
/ 2
=
28.67
ND Offense

OSU Defense


ND Score
( 21.14
+
27.21 )
/ 2
=
24.18

So, that give us a (rough) final score of Ohio State 29, Notre Dame 24. Oddsmakers, by the way, have Ohio State a 4.5 favorite right now.