Thursday, August 24, 2006

Dr. StrangeLemming, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Recruiting | by Michael

In the summer of 2002, a group of prognosticators gathered together for an annual darts competition. But it wasn't your ordinary game of Cricket or 301: these were the folks from Insiders, Rivals, and the turtleneck-wearing Tom Lemming. Based on where their darts landed, these men would publish a Top 100 list of the best football recruits in the country.

Just how accurate were these guys?

We did this last year for the 2001 class, so it was a no-brainer to repeat the process, especially since Heisman hopeful Brady Quinn was among the recruits from the class of 2002. Surely Quinn would have been at the top of that '02 list since he's been identified as one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and a likely top 5 NFL draft pick, right?

Here's how the index was compiled (and how the ratings have been tweaked since last year):

• Final top 100 lists were gathered from Insiders (now known as Scout), Lemming, and Rivals.
• The rankings were converted into points by giving a recruit (101-x) points, where x represented his ranking. The #1 recruit would therefore receive 100 points, and the #100 recruit would receive 1 point.
• Players who were not ranked on a list were automatically assigned a 150th place ranking, which converted to negative points.
• The total points for each recruit were compared, and ties were broken by the highest ranking on any individual list. (For what it's worth, only one player who wasn't ranked in a list made the top 50.)
Here's the tally. In the parentheses following each player's name are his total points and his individual list rankings (Insiders-Lemming-Rivals) separated by hyphens.

#1 - Kyle Wright, Miami (291 pts, 5-2-5)
The Miami quarterback had a solid season last year. That's about all that can be said. He threw for 2400 yards, had a 18:10 TD/INT ratio, and averaged nearly 8 yards per pass attempt. That's a solid year for a quarterback, let alone a first year starter. Still, considering the immense hype he received as a high school senior, his numbers are a tad underwhelming. Besides, he couldn't even beat out Brock Berlin two years ago.

#2 - Whitney Lewis, Northern Iowa (285 pts, 4-11-3)
High school was much kinder to the Trojan WR. Back then, homework and classwork didn't count, and the offense revolved around Lewis. For the last three years, however, Lewis has revolved around different positions on the USC practice field and he's struggled keeping his grades up. We're still waiting for some kind of impact, and only those of us who can pick up the Northern Iowa games on satellite will be able to follow the rest of Whitney's career.

#3 - Ernie Sims, Detroit Lions (273 pts, 1-28-1)
The smallish LB lived up to all the high school hype lauded upon him by Rivals (#1 overall) and Insiders (#1 overall). Sims enjoyed a terrific career at Florida State. Only the fact that Sims wasn't headed to Notre Dame probably kept Lemming from ranking him higher than 28th.

#4 - Andre Caldwell, Florida (271 pts, 18-10-4)
Was all set to be a gamebreaker in Urban Meyer's spread offense until he broke his leg in the third game of the year against Tennessee. That said, he was solid but unspectacular in 2004 with 43 catches for 689 yards. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt heading into 2006 - not only because of the injury but also because he played in a Ron Zook offense - but Caldwell needs to be careful. There are WRs aplenty behind him on the depth chart at Florida if he cannot regain his previous form.

#5 - Chris Leak, Florida (270 pts, 6-1-26)
The much-maligned Leak actually improved his completion rate to 63% and threw just 6 INTs with 20 TDs. Still, anyone who watched a Gator game last year knows that he is the wrong fit for Meyer's offense. Leak is a terrific QB with the career stats to back it up; however, he's simply in the wrong system. How it will affect his NFL future remains to be seen.

#6 - Greg Olsen, Miami (270 pts, 20-3-10)
We didn't need him anyway. Still, he's a pretty good TE. Just don't quote me on that.

#7 - Demetris Summers, ??? (270 pts, 8-4-21)
His junior video was unbelievable, but Steve Spurrier didn't care much. He kicked Summers off the team last year. Summers went undrafted a few months ago, but Dallas decided that Terrell Owens would need some competition for biggest pain in the ass; they signed Summers. Summers got off to a fast start by impressing new head coach Bill Parcells with his ability to show up late and loaf around practice. He was cut on August 19th.

#8 - Prescott Burgess, Michigan (270 pts, 11-16-6)
Burgess has contributed since his freshman year, and last year was his first as a starter. He tallied 81 tackles yet only 4 TFL from his OLB position in 2005. Still, he hasn't really lived up to the hype, and he's running out of time. Perhaps the change of defensive coordinator (Jim Herrman to Ron English) will help Burgess develop into the playmaker many pegged him to be.

#9 - Michael Bush, Louisville (266 pts, 3-6-28)
My darkhorse pick for Heisman. His career rushing stats are mindboggling. With nearly 2400 rushing yards, Bush is averaging 5.7 yards per carry over his three-year career. He also has 36 TDs. Expect those numbers to grow against a weak Big East schedule.

#10 - Lamarr Woodley, Michigan (260 pts, 2-27-14)
The other Wolverine LB in the top ten has been a much more consistent performer. Woodley amassed 16 TFL in both 2004 and 2005, and last year he also led Michigan with 7 sacks. He has moved around in his career, from DE to different LB spots, but wherever he lines up, he's a dangerous defender.

#11 - Wesley Jefferson, Maryland (258 pts, 7-25-13)
So far, Jefferson has only managed spot duty with a couple starts over three years. This year he moves from the weakside into the starting line-up as the middle LB. Last year he tallied the most tackles of any non-starter, but going into his fourth year, more has been expected of Jefferson. He still has this fall and a fifth year in 2007 available to him to live up to the hype, and to fill the shoes of big-time Maryland LBs who played in front of him (EJ Henderson, D'Qwell Jackson).

#12 - Ofa Mohetau, Texas Tech (256 pts, 17-12-18)
After a talented freshman year at BYU, the OT struggled through some injuries and failed to live up to academic expectations. After enrolling at a JUCO and becoming one of the highest ranked JUCO recruits, Mohetau will resurface this fall at Texas Tech. It'll be very difficult for Red Raider opponents to get around him - if he manages to play this fall. About a week ago, Mohetau left practice early, giving the impression to his teammates that he had quit. However, he did return the following day. Maybe he figured the "Rudy" act would earn him some playing time in Tech's opener.

#13 - Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints (252 pts, 35-14-2)
The next Renaldo Neiamiah turned out to be a "pretty good" college player. In hindsight, how could a tailback with a highlight reel like this not even break into the top ten?

#14 - Joe Cohen, Florida (243 pts, 29-15-16)
Cohen came to Gainesville as an athlete who most recruitniks projected to FB or LB. Four years later, depending on what you read, he's anywhere from 295 to 300 lbs, and the two year starter at DE has moved to the inside. Whether it's by design (a la Greg Mattison "tie up the OL") or not, Cohen hasn't racked up that many tackles in his career; he has just 43 in 21 career starts on defense. That includes only one sack. In his defense, however, Cohen has battled some hip injuries.

#15 - Kregg Lumpkin, Georgia (236 pts, 16-32-19)
After a strong freshman year where many fans annointed Lumpkin the future of Georgia football, the injury bug bit Lumpkin in 2004. He suffered a knee injury on the first day of fall practice that kept him out all year, and when he returned, highly rated TB recruit Thomas Brown was there to beat him out for the starting job. Last year Lumpkin, nursing a nagging shoulder all year, rushed for 335 yards on 66 carries, but half of those carries came in the last three games. Entering this fall, Lumpkin is still competing with Brown and speedy Danny Ware for carries. With such a crowded backfield, it may prove difficult for Lumpkin to live up to the hype of such lofty high school accolades.

#16 - Antonio Cromartie, San Diego Chargers (234 pts, 24-5-40)
A 6'2 cornerback who runs a 4.3 forty? Even after coming off a torn ACL that prematurely ended his college career at Florida State, Cromartie was still a NFL first round draft pick. Last time I saw him, he was starting at cornerback in a preseason game for the Chargers. Not bad at all for a guy who wasn't even a full-time starter in 2004.

#17 - Jarvis Moss, Florida (234 pts, 13-30-26)
Moss first saw action last year as a situational pass rusher. The Gators are counting on him to develop into an every down player at DE, as he has moved into the starting line-up. As a pass rushing specialist, Moss collected 7.5 sacks, which was actually good enough to finish 5th in the SEC. For the Gators to have a dominating defense, they will need Moss to remove the one-dimensional player tag and strengthen his run-stopping skills. It could easily happen this fall.

#18 - Robert Lane, Ole Miss (230 pts, 32-9-32)
Once the heir apparent to Eli Manning, Lane is now playing TE for the Rebels with Brent Schaeffer at the helm of Ed Orgeron’s squad. Last year Lane caught 17 balls for 213 yards and a touchdown as a FB and TE. This year, with former Miami offensive coordinator Dan Werner calling the plays, don’t be surprised to see Lane develop into another of those athletic, pass-catching threats familiar from the ‘Canes’ offenses. Still, being an undersized TE is probably the last thing Lane expected when he entered college football as one of the best high school quarterbacks.

#19 - Victor Abiamiri, Notre Dame (224 pts, 48-8-23)
The first Irish player shows up at #19. Most fans figured that Abiamiri would be the dominating pass-rushing threat that he appeared to be in the U.S. Army All-American game, but he has played on the strongside since he enrolled and has never been more than a modest pass-rusher. However, as a strongside defensive end he has really developed his game, and without a true pass rusher on the left side and while facing constant double teams, Abiamiri still managed to sack the quarterback 8 times last year. He also added 46 tackles and 15 tackles for loss (2nd on the team). Abiamiri has played all four years, although last year was his first as a starter. If Notre Dame can get some pressure from the weakside, this could make Abiamiri even more effective.

#20 - Dee Webb, Jacksonville Jaguars (223 pts, 34-34-12)
The two-year starter at Florida had just one interception in his career, but that didn’t stop him from jumping to the NFL after an All-SEC first team selection in 2005. The Jags took him in the 7th round; one can’t help but wonder whether Webb could have made more money had he stuck around for his final season.

#21 - Jorrie Adams, ??? (222 pts, 31-42-8)
Out of football. Adams has yet to resurface since Dennis Franchione kicked him off the Texas A&M squad during the summer of 2005. Adams showed a lot of promise during a strong redshirt freshman campaign at DE, but alas, he’s probably washing cars or flipping burgers now.

#22 - Paul Oliver, Georgia (222 pts, 23-49-9)
Oliver has yet to develop into the corner that many projected him to be coming out of high school. After a torn ACL suffered during his senior year, Oliver redshirted his freshman year and has mainly played as a back-up during 2004 and 2005. Last year he picked off three passes and played well down the stretch, starting a couple games. He enters the 2006 season as the starting weakside corner. It would certainly appear that the initial knee injury has affected his play, as Oliver was widely considered the best player in the state of Georgia coming out of high school.

#23 - Moe Dampeer, Joliet Junior College (222 pts, 26-26-29)
Dampeer signed with Oklahoma showed some promise during his first two years…before he was kicked off the team. At the time, head coach Bob Stoops offered this explanation: “It is fair to say that he consistently is not doing the things that we feel are necessary to be a part of this team and to play on the field. That is going to class, workouts and all of those things.” Dampeer resurfaced at Joliet Junior College, where he reportedly ballooned to 370 lbs. Some rumors circulated that Ron Zook was trying to get him to join his cousin Marques Wilkins at Illinois, but nothing has materialized yet. At least he can dance.

#24 - Chad Jackson, New England Patriots (215 pts, 33-38-17)
Urban Meyer’s spread offense did wonders for Jackson’s game, as he rode his outstanding junior season right out of Gainesville and into the NFL draft. Last year the Biletnikoff semi-finalist caught 88 balls (tying a school record) for 900 yards and 9 touchdowns. The prior year he was fourth on the team with 29 catches and 648 yards. Jackson was a second round pick of the Patriots and is expected to contribute immediately.

#25 - Robert Meachem, Tennessee (215 pts, 33-38-17)
Sadly, Meachem is the Vols’ leading receiver in both 2004 and 2005, yet in that time, he has only 842 yards receiving (and 54 catches). That speaks volumes about the quarterback play in Knoxville. Additionally puzzling is how, despite being the leading receiver each year, Meachem has managed only two starts of his 24 games played. That one doesn’t quite add up. Luckily for Meachem, David Cutcliffe is back in town as the Vols’ offensive coordinator, so that should lead to increased opportunities for him in 2006. The receiver clearly has a lot of talent, so his underperformance – if it can even be chalked up as that – will be attributed to what I like to generally call the David Givens rule. (For non-ND fans, Givens was a top 25 recruit whose obvious talent was wasted by then-head coach Bob Davie in a pathetic excuse for an offense. Givens was drafted as a wide receiver by the Patriots based solely on his upside, and he has developed into an NFL starter.)

#26 - Donte Whitner, Buffalo Bills (210 pts, 19-47-27)
Originally projected as one of the top cornerbacks in this class, Whitner signed with Ohio State and never played a down at the position. The Buckeye staff moved him to strong safety, where he became a full-time starter during the 2004 season. After a solid sophomore season where his 69 tackles was good enough for fourth on the team, he had a strong junior campaign and became a third team All-American with 73 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 interception, and 9 tackles for loss. Whitner decided to jump to the NFL, and the Bills made him their first round choice.

#27 - Steve Smith, Southern Cal (207 pts, 59-7-30)
Smith is entering his third season as a starting wide receiver, but he has always played in the shadow of his fellow receivers. During his freshman year he was the Trojans’ third receiver, but Keary Colbert and Mike Williams took all the headlines. Then, during 2004 and 2005, Dwayne Jarrett was “the man” for Trojan quarterback Matt Leinart. Smith has put up some good numbers in the meantime, with 60 catches and 957 yards last year and 42 catches and 660 yards in an injury-shortened sophomore year. Smith has been a very productive college receiver and there’s no reason to believe he won’t have a strong senior year.

#28 - Daniel Brooks, ??? (201 pts, 58-13-31)
It wasn’t exactly Hatfields vs. McCoys, but the linebacker had an on-campus feud with Vols basketball player Andre Patterson. After a “physical altercation” (and a history of problematic behavior), head coach Philip Fulmer cut Brooks loose. During his two years in Knoxville, Brooks played in 21 games (never as a starter) and tallied a whopping 11 tackles for his career.

#29 - Tyrone Moss, Miami (197 pts, 39-23-44)
After showing promise his first two years as a back-up running back, Moss was rushing for more than 5 yards per carry and leading the ACC in rushing touchdowns through seven games. Then a torn ACL against Virginia Tech cut his season short. Nonetheless, he still led the ACC in rushing touchdowns. It remains to be seen how Moss will come back from the injury, although because he’s more of a power back (5-9, 220 lbs last year), there are fewer concerns about loss of speed. Moss came into camp at 232 lbs and will have to fight off sophomore Charlie Jones, who impressed last year in Moss’s absence.

#30 - JaMarcus Russell, Louisiana State (193 pts, 14-17-79)
After redshirting his freshman year, Russell was pressed into duty in 2004 because of Marcus Randall’s inconsistency. Including four starts, he completed 73 of 144 passes for over 1000 yards, 9 TDs, and 4 INTs. Last year Russell took over the starting position, and he had a strong year. In leading LSU to a 10-2 record and a Peach Bowl bid, he improved his completion percentage from 50.7% to 60.5%, more than doubled his passing yards, and threw 15 TDs with 9 INTs. Unfortunately for Russell, who separated his shoulder in the SEC championship game and missed the Peach Bowl, he has competition for his starting job from Peach Bowl MVP Matt Flynn and highly rated recruit Ryan Perriloux.

#31 - Sean Bailey, Georgia (182 pts, 69-19-33)
After tearing an ACL during Sugar Bowl practices last winter, Bailey is expected to miss the 2006 season. He has a redshirt year available to him. Bailey became a starter last season, and responded with 16 catches for 364 yards and 4 TDs. Prior to becoming a starter, Bailey did earn some playing time as a back-up, and through his first two years caught 20 balls for 290 yards.

#32 - Xavier Lawson-Kennedy, Oklahoma State (172 pts, 28-36-67)
Lawson-Kennedy finally became a starter in 2005, although he fought off some nagging injuries. His stats have been fairly disappointing throughout his career, despite the fact that he’s played in 32 games. XLK has tallied 27 tackles, 5 TFL, and just 0.5 sacks. He appears to be playing well according to Oklahoma State practice reports, although a post-spring practice depth chart listed him as a back-up.

#33 - Tarrell Brown, Texas (170 pts, 63-35-35)
Brown is the quintessential blue-chip cornerback. He played as a back-up during his freshman year, then moved into the starting job during his sophomore year and has looked really good over the last two years. He is coming off a broken arm he suffered during the waning minutes of the Rose Bowl, and Texas plans to use him against opponents’ slot receivers in obvious passing downs. This is how they used Michael Huff the last two years. Whether Brown can follow Huff into the NFL remains to be seen.

#34 - Tony Hills, Texas (168 pts, 76-52-7)
Although he’s technically a member of the 2003 recruiting class, Hills didn’t enroll until the spring of 2004. Rivals has him listed as a June 2003 commit to Texas, despite the fact that he took his official visit in December 2002. It’s a mystery to me, although Hills appears to have suffered a serious knee injury during his senior year. In any case, the Longhorns staff moved him from TE to OT, and he has played a back-up role to Jonathan Scott at LT during the last two years. Now that Scott is in the NFL, it’s Hill’s job to lose and expectations are high.

#35 - Jayson Swain, Tennessee (162 pts, 65-21-55)
So Tennessee has two wide receivers in the top 35 players from this recruiting class, yet their passing attack has sucked…again, I invoke the David Givens rule. Swain has been consistent the last two years: 27 catches for 380 yards in 2005 and 29 catches for 388 yards in 2004. He also added another 21 catches as a freshman. Swain certainly appears to have the talent; it’s just a matter of whether or not the Vols’ offense can move the ball more consistently in the air.

#36 - Justin Warren, Texas A&M (161 pts, 54-54-34)
Warren developed into a starter midway through his freshman year and hasn’t really looked back since. The 6-3, 242 lb outside linebacker was a first-team All-Big 12 selection with 95 tackles, 3 sacks, and 6 tackles for loss (admittedly, a surprisingly low number). He enters the 2006 season with quite a few pre-season accolades.

#37 - Quinton Culberson, Mississippi State (160 pts, 82-37-24)
Culberson, who has “shrunk” 2 inches and gained 38 pounds over his four years, made an immediate impact with the Bulldogs by starting eight games as a freshman safety. He moved to outside linebacker during the off-season and started the last five games of 2004. Last year he moved to inside linebacker and started every game. This year he’ll stick at middle linebacker, and he’s expected to be one of the best in the SEC. Last year he tallied 78 tackles with an interception and a sack, an improvement over his 56 tackles as a sophomore.

#38 - Louis Irizarry, Youngstown State (149 pts, 47-69-38)
Although he was kicked off the Ohio State team in 2003 for robbery (along with then-teammate Ira Guilford), Irizarry isn’t out of football. He transferred to Youngstown State in 2004 and joined the football team last fall. He’s expected to start at TE.

#39 - Tony Cade, UNLV (148 pts, 15-89-51)
The safety signed with Oklahoma, where he redshirted and then spent the next year playing mostly special teams. Cade then transferred to UNLV by way of City College of San Francisco. Although he’s done nothing in his collegiate career to justify it, Phil Steele has still pegged him as pre-season 3rd team All-MWC selection at safety.

#40 - Darrell Blackman, North Carolina State (145 pts, 88-24-46)
After spending the 2003 season at Hargrave Military Academy because he couldn’t qualify, Blackman came to North Carolina State as a RB. He earned some carries as a back-up in 2004, but he was more well known for some of his electrifying punt and kick returns. Blackman started the 2005 season as the #1 tailback; however, after that game he became almost strictly a third down back because of the contributions of hotshot freshmen Toney Baker and Andre Brown. After that first game against Virginia Tech, Blackman caught 11 balls for 111 yards and only rushed 34 more times for 145 yards. In the spring, in an effort to get more playmakers on the field, Blackman was moved to WR, and he enters the 2006 season as the starter at the flanker position.

#41 - Lawrence Jackson, Southern Cal (131 pts, 25-78-69)
LoJack is entering his third year as a starter and has 16 sacks under his belt. Last year he garnered first-team All-Pac 10 honors after a season where he made 46 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and six pass deflections. He’s got prototypical pass rusher size at 6-5 and 265 lbs, and he’s tough to run, too. He could easily end up a high NFL draft pick next April.

#42 - Nate Robinson, Akron (128 pts, 10-UR-15)
The talented DT from New Jersey signed a letter of intent with Miami but failed to qualify. He decided to stick around and become the jewel of Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano’s recruiting class. However, by the spring of 2005, even Schiano didn’t want him around. Robinson was kicked off the team, and he found his way to Ohio and the Akron Zips during the off-season.

#43 - Justin Ostrowski, Wisconsin (121 pts, 62-98-22)
Ostrowski gained about fifty pounds during his first year with the Badgers, so it’s no surprise that the high school defensive end morphed into a college defensive tackle. He played in all eleven games during the 2004 season, managing a sack and five tackles. Last year he tore his PCL in fall camp and the injury forced him to miss quite a few games. He managed only three tackles all season. Currently Ostrowski is a second-string defensive tackle, and it sounds like this knee injury may prevent him from ever reaching the potential bestowed upon him as a top 50 recruit.

#44 - Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (121 pts, 62-98-22)
The sixth pick of last year’s NFL draft ran a 4.38 forty yard dash at 253 lbs. Davis used that speed to haul in 51 passes for 871 yards and 6 TDs last year for the Maryland Terrapins.

#45 - Reggie Nelson, Florida (120 pts, 38-84-61)
Nelson failed to qualify and enrolled at Coffeyville Community College in Kansas. Last year was his first with the Gators, and the safety played in every game, starting four of them. He made over forty tackles and sacked the quarterback four times. Big things are expected of Nelson heading into 2006, especially since the Gator staff has moved him back and forth between free safety and cornerback in practices. If they can’t find another cornerback opposite Reggie Lewis, it’s quite possible that Nelson will stick at cornerback.

#46 - Turk McBride, Tennessee (105 pts, 42-76-80)
McBride has played every year for the Vols, and he has earned four starts in thirty games. Those four starts occurred in 2004, when McBride tallied 36 tackles and three sacks – by far, his best season. Last year McBride played more as a back-up, and this year he is expected to start since the Vols lost starting DT Jesse Mahelona to the NFL.

#47 - Martin O'Donnell, Illinois (102 pts, 99-91-11)
It’s hard to believe that, given ND’s struggle in recruiting OL during the Willingham years, O’Donnell was never offered. Meanwhile, after a redshirt season in 2003, the Illini have found themselves a two-year starter at LG with two years of eligibility remaining. Sigh…

#48 - Shawn Crable, Michigan (99 pts, 92-73-39)
The linebacker has simply failed to live up to the hype in Ann Arbor. After a redshirt season, he has accumulated just 20 tackles in two years’ play. He has four sacks, but two of them have come against Indiana. Going into the 2006 season, he’s no more than a back-up at outside linebacker. The clock is ticking.

#49 - Chris Barrett, Southern Cal (87 pts, 40-99-77)
The Trojan coaches started Barrett at DE in 2003, moved him to TE during the 2004 season, moved him back to DE during the 2005 spring practice, and have finally moved him to DT in the spring. Shoulder injuries bothered Barrett during his first two years in Los Angeles, and in 2005 he suffered a torn calf muscle. He has five tackles in his Trojan career, and all were recorded last year.

#50 - Doug Van Dyke, ??? (87 pts, 81-85-50)
The brother of former Michigan State quarterback Ryan Van Dyke shocked quite a few people when he picked the Boilermakers over Michigan and Michigan State. However, he only lasted one semester at Purdue before he quit the team. He hasn’t resurfaced anywhere.

In addition to Abiamiri, here's how other Irish players fared:
58. Ryan Harris (50-51-NR)
65. Tom Zbikowski (85-29-NR)
66. Brady Quinn (95-20-NR)
70. John Sullivan (60-61-NR)
97. Trevor Laws (NR-41-NR)
125. Ambrose Wooden (NR-67-NR)
126. Isaiah Gardner (71-NR-NR)
128. Freddie Parish (NR-NR-72)
If you're wondering who was the best dart thrower, the final tally shows Rivals (3,575 pts) beating both Insiders (3,224 pts) and Lemming (3,137 pts). All that means is that more of Rivals' highly-touted recruits made the top 50 than those of Insiders and Lemming.

Lemming was hurt by guys like former Michigan back-up QB Clayton Richard (NR-22-71), Penn State tailback Austin Scott (NR-18-UR) and Notre Dame's Quinn (95-20-NR). Did Lemming get lucky with Quinn or does he really have the chops to evaluate QBs? I'll let you decide. Meanwhile, Insiders was hurt by recruits like Tennessee signee Eric Young (12-87-NR), Virginia signee Jordy Lipsey (21-NR-88) and Florida's Earl Everett (9-NR-NR). By contrast, Rivals had every member of their top 35 make this list, although their #11, Martin O'Donnell, barely made it.

And stay tuned for more dart-throwing, as Rivals, Scout, the Lemmster, and every other armchair evaluator revises their lists as '06 unfolds...although a certain quarterback from Oaks Christian looks to have the inside track on the #1 bullseye. Will he live up to the hype?