Saturday, October 27, 2007

Resumé-based Rankings | by Jay

Resumé-based rankings, i.e., the Conversation (now with hyperlinks!) Heading into week 9, here's how it shapes up:

Pts
Team
Conf
Wins
Losses
BCS
Wins
Opp
Bonus
17 LSU SEC
7 -1 5 +13
15 Boston College ACC
8 0
5 +10
14 Michigan B10
6 -2 5 +11
14 Ohio State B10
8 0
5 +9
13 Virginia ACC
7 -1 6 +8
12 Arizona St PAC
7 0
5 +7
10 Missouri B12
6 -1 4 +7
9 Oklahoma B12
7 -1 4 +6
9 Oregon PAC
6 -1 4 +6
8 South Florida BE
6 -1 3 +6
7 Kansas B12
7 0 3 +4
7 South Carolina SEC
6 -2 4 +5
Pts
Team
Conf
Wins
Losses
BCS
Wins
Opp
Bonus
6 Georgia SEC
5 -2 4 +4
5 Connecticut BE
6 -1 3 +3
5 Kentucky SEC
6 -2 3 +4
5 Penn State B10
6 -2 4 +3
5 Southern Cal PAC
6 -1 5 +1
5 West Virginia BE
6 -1 3 +3
4 Virginia Tech ACC
6 -2 3 +3
3 Auburn SEC
5 -3 4 +2
3 California PAC
5 -2 3 +2
3 Illinois B10
5 -3 4 +2
3 Wake Forest ACC
5 -2 3 +2

(Opponent Bonus = Wins of teams you've beaten - Losses of teams you lost to)
(Points = BCS Wins - Losses + Opponent Bonus)


As of week 9, there are 23 teams in the Conversation (the logical cutoff this week was 3 points).

Of course, as we know, the Conversation is not meant to be a cold, generic, Sagarin-style output. The above table is just the raw data, the starting point, and with a deft hand we may adjust it according to things like common opponents (and common sense). Right now, however, let's leave it as-is, and take a look at some bullet points that bubble up.

• LSU still atop the Convo, despite a loss. The reason's pretty simple: almost everyone they've beaten has a winning record, and their four big wins (Va Tech, So Carolina, Florida, and Auburn) were against four pretty strong teams. Still, you could (and probably should) make a case for putting unblemished Boston College into the pole position ahead of them.

• Michigan snuck back in while we weren't looking, on the strength of the Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois wins (+13), who are collectively 22-10. That's a nice rebound from an abysmal start. Ohio State doesn't have the resume quite yet; they include 2-5 Washington and 1-7 Minnesota among their BCS wins. We'll know more tonight (OSU @ Penn State, 8pm ET on ABC) and after the Michigan-OSU showdown.

Still, having a two-loss team like Michigan among the top 4 doesn't quite taste right. Should two bad losses -- one of them really bad -- outweigh four strong wins? Perhaps a tweak of the Conversation is in order to account for Division 1AA losses.

• UVA? Where did they come from? Talk about flying under the radar. They've played 6 BCS opponents thus far, and the games that are really helping them are wins over Georgia Tech (+3) and Connecticut (+3).

• Mizzou is ahead of Oklahoma according to points, but I would flip-flop those, obviously.

• Of all the Conversation teams, Southern Cal has the weakest Opponent Bonus. Consider their resume:

* beat 0-7 Idaho
* beat 4-4 Nebraska
* beat 2-5 Wash St
* beat 2-5 Washington
* lost to 3-4 Stanford
* beat 2-6 Arizona
* beat 1-7 Notre Dame

It's safe to say they haven't played anyone yet. That's why the Oregon-Southern Cal game is the one I'm most looking forward to today (3pm ET, FSN). How good are the Trojans? We're about to find out.